12/01 @ DEN — I Know, the desk before tip-off Written before tip-off, from the five games each side brought in. Denver comes in 3-2 over its last five, scoring 125 a night and allowing 121, shooting 52 percent and 46 from three, 23 free throws a game; Jokić at 28 and Murray at 28 a game. It has won the glass by 4 a night. Without Braun (8 straight), Gordon (4 straight). One day's rest. Dallas comes in 2-3 over its last five, scoring 110 a night and allowing 112, shooting 43 percent and 34 from three, 22 free throws a game; Washington at 22 and Flagg at 20 a game. It has lost the glass by 4 a night. Without Russell (2 straight). One day's rest. So: Denver wins, and the game turns on the arc, Denver at 46 percent from three to Dallas's 34 and the glass, where Denver has been plus-4 a night and Dallas minus-4. Call it Denver 120, Dallas 112.

12/03 vs MIA — I Know, the desk before tip-off Written before tip-off, from the five games each side brought in. Dallas comes in 2-3 over its last five, scoring 112 a night and allowing 114, shooting 45 percent and 37 from three, 19 free throws a game; Washington at 21 and Flagg at 19 a game. It has lost the glass by 6 a night. Without Washington (2 straight), Gafford (2 straight). One day's rest. Miami comes in 4-1 over its last five, scoring 123 a night and allowing 117, shooting 49 percent and 38 from three, 25 free throws a game; Powell at 25 and Herro at 25 a game. One day's rest. So: Miami wins, on the road, and the game turns on the glass, where Miami has been plus-3 a night and Dallas minus-6 and the line, where Miami takes 25 free throws a game to Dallas's 19. Call it Miami 118, Dallas 116, Dallas keeping it close.

12/05 @ OKC — I Know, the desk before tip-off Written before tip-off, from the five games each side brought in. OKC comes in 5-0 over its last five, scoring 121 a night and allowing 109, shooting 51 percent and 40 from three, and living at the line: 29 free throws a game, Gilgeous-Alexander alone taking 9 to 17 of them while averaging 35.6. The wins came every which way, a 39-18 first quarter against Portland, a fourth-quarter comeback at Portland, a 31-18 second at Golden State, which is the mark of a team that does not need one particular quarter to go right. Dallas comes in hot in its own way: three straight wins, 131 at Denver on 56 percent shooting, Davis back and scoring (32, then 17), Flagg carrying real minutes (35, 24, 22), and a habit of owning the second quarter, 42-27 at Denver and 36-21 against Miami, both turning deficits into leads. The soft spots: Dallas gets to the line 18 times a game to OKC's 29, allows 115, and shot 39 percent on 97 attempts in its last loss. So: OKC wins, and the game turns on two things. The second quarter is Dallas's. Expect them within a possession or ahead at the half if Davis and Flagg get the ball inside and the threes fall at their 40 percent clip. Then the free-throw line decides it. OKC's edge there has been ten attempts a game, and Gilgeous-Alexander against a defense that allowed 24 and 26 free throws in its two recent losses is the worst matchup on the floor for Dallas. Call it OKC 122, Dallas 112, the Thunder pulling away in the third, Gilgeous-Alexander over 30 with double-digit free throws, and the glass (OKC lost it 51-37 to Phoenix) the only way Dallas keeps it inside five.

12/06 vs HOU — I Know, the desk before tip-off Written before tip-off, from the five games each side brought in. Dallas comes in 3-2 over its last five, scoring 119 a night and allowing 120, shooting 49 percent and 43 from three, 19 free throws a game; Flagg at 22 and Marshall at 16 a game. Without Washington (4 straight). Second night of a back-to-back. Houston comes in 4-1 over its last five, scoring 119 a night and allowing 105, shooting 49 percent and 34 from three, 28 free throws a game; Durant at 27 and Sengun at 26 a game. It has won the glass by 11 a night. Without Eason (9 straight), Finney-Smith (20 straight). Second night of a back-to-back. So: Houston wins, on the road, and the game turns on the glass, where Houston has been plus-11 a night and Dallas minus-1 and the defense, Houston allowing 105 a night to Dallas's 120. Call it Houston 118, Dallas 113.